Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.333219 0.381111 0.433137 0.493811 0.562588 0.638088 0.727216
2025-08-17 0.246013 0.305394 0.375012 0.462509 0.569395 0.695574 0.855695
2025-08-24 0.192672 0.257870 0.339832 0.450101 0.594233 0.775858 1.021725
2025-08-31 0.152872 0.219648 0.309276 0.437784 0.616652 0.856058 1.199982
2025-09-07 0.128577 0.197422 0.295651 0.445059 0.665436 0.977192 1.450046
2025-09-14 0.102761 0.168208 0.267232 0.426599 0.675001 1.045303 1.636460
2025-09-21 0.085145 0.148042 0.248602 0.419225 0.699196 1.137333 1.870651
2025-09-28 0.070709 0.130232 0.230524 0.409436 0.717593 1.222353 2.105416
2025-10-05 0.062839 0.122070 0.226818 0.422477 0.774763 1.376295 2.471823
2025-10-12 0.054274 0.111036 0.216231 0.421656 0.807640 1.493491 2.791477
2025-10-19 0.047877 0.102884 0.209456 0.426481 0.850947 1.633846 3.169613
2025-10-26 0.043030 0.096895 0.205739 0.436356 0.904769 1.799524 3.614664
2025-11-02 0.035959 0.085163 0.189193 0.419186 0.905573 1.869974 3.897463
2025-11-09 0.029603 0.073721 0.171287 0.396257 0.891335 1.909608 4.126507
2025-11-16 0.025443 0.066462 0.161127 0.388263 0.907204 2.011926 4.497083
2025-11-23 0.021880 0.059895 0.151358 0.379483 0.920005 2.109634 4.871733
2025-11-30 0.019820 0.056679 0.148870 0.387231 0.971352 2.297052 5.465947
2025-12-07 0.016827 0.050364 0.137691 0.372055 0.966707 2.359693 5.790465
2025-12-14 0.014729 0.046041 0.130756 0.366281 0.983835 2.474226 6.249461
2025-12-21 0.012831 0.041862 0.123422 0.358170 0.993798 2.573067 6.684367
2025-12-28 0.011945 0.040508 0.123521 0.370007 1.056911 2.808496 7.480953
2026-01-04 0.010725 0.037842 0.119438 0.369546 1.087288 2.966463 8.104816
2026-01-11 0.009801 0.035925 0.117195 0.373989 1.131813 3.166374 8.861779